Need for speed at World Endurance Championships

Endurance horses inwards action. [File image] © Dr David Marlin

Dr David Marlin looks at how the weekend’s Longines FEI World Endurance Championships were won – together with lost.

How did Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum know how fast to become to win the FEI World Endurance Championships on August 25?

Having ridden unopen to similar courses inwards competitions run from Euston Park inwards the yesteryear 3 to 4 years would definitely bring helped. Although the class would non bring been precisely the same every bit whatsoever used previously, at that spot are a express divulge of tracks that could live used.

The fact that the expanse is essentially apartment way that the fourth dimension should live similar to 160km courses used before. Another element that of class needs to live considered would live the environmental conditions. The hotter, to a greater extent than humid, less cloud together with less air current at that spot is, the slower the speed. Watching what other riders create is also a element that needs to live considered when setting out a strategy. You require to live upward amongst the forepart runners to stand upward a run a endangerment of winning, but running amongst the forepart runners increases your run a endangerment of elimination.

No 2 endurance races volition live run precisely the same, but if you lot don’t similar leaving things to run a endangerment together with similar statistics together with numbers, hence looking dorsum at previous times for 160km races rides at Euston Park would seem obvious.

And I suspect that this is what many teams would bring done inwards their grooming for the 2012 FEI World Endurance Championships.

But, fifty-fifty the rigid prove of previous times for 160km race rides at Euston every bit an indicator of race strategy would non laissez passer on the whole picture.

The missing factor?

This was a World Championship, together with they don’t necessarily bring to follow the rules. In a World Championship you lot bring a really high divulge of horses together with riders, together with a larger proportion of these than normal would live inwards amongst a run a endangerment of winning.

This ordinarily way that speeds would live expected to live a piddling faster than normal for such a course. The difficulty nosotros bring amongst endurance is that due to the distances involved, environmental conditions, going (footing), terrain together with technical difficulty (e.g. divulge together with frequency of turns) all bring a major acquit upon on the speed at which a 160km ride tin live won.

So what should nosotros bring expected from previous 160km race rides at Euston Park over the yesteryear 3 seasons together with how did this jibe upward to the race designing together with winning speed for the Longines 2012 FEI World Endurance Championships?

The ride information for 2010, 2011 together with 2012 for 160km senior rides at Euston Park was analysed. Each Summer for the yesteryear 3 years the rides bring been held regularly together with over similar terrain.

So the showtime enquiry I had is “have the 160km race rides at Euston Park (4 inwards 2010, 4 inwards 2011 together with 3 inwards 2012 [there was a 4th 160km race ride inwards 2012 but it was dull yesteryear Euston Park normal standards, alone had 4 starters together with 2 finishers together with hence I decided non to include it]) been getting faster over the yesteryear 3 seasons?”

The answer to this ane is a uncomplicated “no”.  The fastest fourth dimension for a 160km at Euston Park over the yesteryear 3 years was on July 25, 2010 (22.2 kmh), followed yesteryear 21.6 kmh on June 9, 2010. That said, the lastly 2 race rides this flavour at Euston earlier the  World Championships both posted winning speeds of 21.3 kmh! So over the yesteryear 3 seasons at Euston, the average winning speed for xi 160km race rides was 20.8 kmh, amongst the fastest beingness 22.2kmh together with the slowest beingness 18.9kmh.

Thus, amongst “normal” August weather condition at the weekend together with amongst practiced going (ie, non also soft), I would bring to live expecting the winner to consummate inwards a fourth dimension of 22.2kmh + a piddling extra to allow for the fact that this is a championship.

In fact, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum finished amongst an average speed of 22.8kmh. At this phase I am non clear whether the thunder together with torrential pelting slowed downward the riders on class significantly, hence it is conceivable that he would bring completed amongst an fifty-fifty faster time.

But the point, I think, is made. The fact that it was a entitle led to a winning fourth dimension slightly faster than would live typical for non-World Championship race rides over 160km at Euston Park. What’s more, using this approach, presumably most teams would bring known what speeds they should bring been targeting on each loop to proceed inwards contention. Or alternatively, they would bring merely tried to proceed upward amongst those setting the pace.

So, inwards conclusion, when it comes to the average speed over 160km for the winner, at that spot are no existent surprises. But what close the designing of the race on a loop yesteryear loop basis? Again, this information is freely available together with lends itself to analysis to aspect for patterns based on previous race rides over 160km at Euston Park.

What is clear from this analysis, is that the showtime loop was extremely fast compared amongst the average for loop 1 for all the winners of 160km race rides at Euston. Actually, whilst I bring used the term “average” , I genuinely used the median, which reduces the influence of loops that were slower or faster than the “norm”. It tin also live seen from the graph that winners at Euston typically bring a faster third loop than the second loop, but this did non move on for Sheikh Mohammed. This was in all probability a effect of the really fast showtime loop.

At the fourth dimension of writing, the times for the 5th together with sixth loops were no available – at that spot was a ability loss during the thunderstorms which resulted inwards a disruption to the timing. (I bring to state I’m non certain why, given that August is a peak calendar month for thunderstorms, that at that spot were non uninterruptable ability supplies together with surge protectors that would bring kept the timing systems upward together with running inwards the lawsuit of a loss inwards mains power).

As presently every bit the times for the fifth and sixth loops are posted I’ll destination the analysis. My predictions are that Sheikh Mohammed would bring completed the fifth Loop at 21.2 kmh together with the lastly loop at 23 kmh.

We shall see!

 

 

 

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